As per March 13, 2025
Leasing New Business
3.2 - 3.4 EURbn
Group Earnings
71 - 81 EURm
Underlying assumptions for this guidance:
CM2 margin
> 16.5%
Loss rate
ca. < 1.6%
Cost-income ratio
< 60%
Equity ratio
ca. 16%
For the 2025 financial year, the Board of Directors expects a growth rate in leasing new business of slightly over 10 percent. Based on the 2024 financial year, this corresponds to leasing new business between EUR 3.2 billion and EUR 3.4 billion.
A CM2 margin of more than 16.5 percent is targeted. Key factors in achieving this goal include refinancing costs, the terms of newly signed leasing contracts, and the average ticket size. For the 2025 financial year, the average value per leasing contract is expected to remain around EUR 10,000. The focus on small tickets continues to be a core part of our strategy.
The Board of Directors expects a positive income performance for the 2025 financial year. The strong leasing new business from the past financial year provides a solid foundation for income growth in 2025. The monetary policy easing already implemented should positively impact the development of operating income from the leasing portfolio—which includes net interest income, profit from the service business, profit from new business, and gains and losses from disposals—during the 2025 financial year.
Group earnings after taxes are expected to reach EUR 71 to 81 million for the full year 2025. This earnings forecast for 2025 is based on the assumption that the loss rate will be around 1.6 percent in a challenging market environment, taking into account political and macroeconomic uncertainties.
The cost-income ratio is projected below 60 percent under this earnings outlook for the 2025 financial year. In the medium term, the CIR is expected to decrease to below 55 percent due to efficiency gains and an increasing level of digitalisation.
For the 2025 financial year, the Board of Directors also aims to continue its long-term dividend policy with a payout ratio of 25 percent.
As a result of the planned new business development, total lease receivables, which are the basis for interest income, are also expected to grow in the high single-digit percentage range in the 2025 financial year. Total assets will increase accordingly. Based on the expected development of Group earnings, grenke continues to aim for an equity ratio of around 16 percent (December 31, 2024: 16.1 percent). This figure serves as a benchmark rather than a strict limit for the Consolidated Group’s capital management.